“If the goal of the economy is to provide decent-paying work for everyone, that economy clearly isn’t doing a good job at the moment. Real wages for most Americans haven’t increased in 40 years. Real unemployment—which includes the “under-employed”—is above 10%. Many jobs are now part-time, flexi-time, or “gigs” with no benefits and few protections. And, we spend a lot of money to subsidize so-called “bullshit jobs“: more than 50% of fast food workers receive some form of public assistance, for instance.”
“Aaron Bastani of Novara Media puts forward a vision of a post-work society where we collectively control our own high-tech, work-reducing machines and are free to live a life of leisure and luxury.
While Paul Mason has set out a vision of a postcapitalism where the economy is made up of cooperatives and self-managed online spaces, the global financial system is socialised, and necessary work is minimised.
Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek have laid out a manifesto for a high-tech future free from work. They call on the government to accelerate the transition towards a fully automated economy, while also providing a universal basic income and dismantling the work ethic.”
“What would a fully automated future without jobs look like?
The Guardian recently released an animated short set in a time when machines dominate the workforce. The story follows the last human worker going on with their average day. Most other humans seen are lining the streets in poverty, as empty high-rise apartment buildings line the skies. The short is beautifully depicted, but has frightening implications.
According to Moshe Vardi, professor of computer science at Rice University: “Machines could take 50% of jobs in the next 30 years.” And Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, notes, “Machines are already undertaking tasks which were unthinkable—if not unimaginable—a decade ago.”
But not everyone believes the world seen in the film is our only option. There is hope.
Even as automation takes over many of today’s jobs—new opportunities may also appear as a result. And these jobs of the future may be much more meaningful for everybody.
“The light at the end of this tunnel,” writes Vivek Wadhwa, “may be a world in which the pursuit of enlightenment is more cherished than the pursuit of money.”
“We need to recognize what it means for exponential technological change to be entering the labor market space for nonroutine jobs for the first time ever. Machines that can learn mean nothing humans do as a job is uniquely safe anymore. From hamburgers to healthcare, machines can be created to successfully perform such tasks with no need or less need for humans, and at lower costs than humans.
“We’ve been analyzing this data for the past two years, and publishing it in aggregate form as part of research projects, partnerships, and other initiatives with academics, governments, and NGOs around the world. Our research projects include a new monthly report – called the LinkedIn Workforce Spotlight – that highlights economic trends in LinkedIn’s data. And we’re partnering with the World Economic Forum to provide data from the Economic Graph detailing global workforce skills.
Specifically, we’re focussing on an analysis of skills – the most atomic unit in the area of workforce analysis. Our data shows that a job title alone doesn’t tell you what is required for that job. That’s because a job title can mean different things in different industries and geographies. Instead, the best way to navigate the rapid change in supply and demand of skills is to describe each job as an agglomeration of skills.”
“Last month, Y-Combinator, Silicon Valley’s blue-chip startup fund, announced a request for proposal to study a universal basic income. Sam Altman, the President of Y-Combinator, wrote in a separate essay that in the future, we will have a “smaller and smaller number of people creating more and more of the wealth. And we need a new solution for the people not creating most of the wealth — many of the minimum wage jobs are going to get innovated away anyway.”The people without jobs will be an “idle class” — and the obvious conclusion, to Altman, “is that the government will just have to give these people money.” (Emphasis ours.)And you wonder why political candidates on both sides are tapping into anti-elitist anger with great success.”
“Five years from now, over one-third of skills (35%) that are considered important in today’s workforce will have changed.By 2020, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will have brought us advanced robotics and autonomous transport, artificial intelligence and machine learning, advanced materials, biotechnology and genomics.These developments will transform the way we live, and the way we work. Some jobs will disappear, others will grow and jobs that don’t even exist today will become commonplace. What is certain is that the future workforce will need to align its skillset to keep pace.”
“This past year, I have spoken with a number of career centers in universities. The most common question I get from them is, “How do we best prepare our students for the ‘real world’?” That’s a great question (and one that many fine minds are trying to figure out), but for those of us running large organizations in today’s digital economy, it’s the wrong one.It’s not about learning a set of skills and then being “prepared” for life. It’s about learning to continuously learn over the course of your whole career. As AT&T CEO and Chair Randall Stephenson, recently told the New York Times, “There is a need to retool yourself, and you should not expect to stop….People who do not spend five to 10 hours a week in online learning will obsolete themselves with the technology.”
“Computers will eventually take our jobs. At least that’s what we’re being told. Machines have been replacing workers for centuries, and intelligent robots will only accelerate this trend. Autonomous vehicles will strand taxi drivers, news filing software will write journalists out of the story, and surgical robots will excise doctors.Designers are supposed to be different. Those of us who fashion clothes, model new products, and shape the world to conform to our sensibilities consider ourselves too creative for any machine to replace. Many of us are convinced that we are unique, our skills irreplaceable. This is not entirely true. Advances in artificial intelligence will usher in a new regime of hyper-personalized designs and tools, a trend with which human designers cannot possibly hope to keep pace. Computers will prove to be far more creative—fearlessly creative—than most humans. Designers are in for a period of radical change and must learn to adapt. Those who don’t might as well start looking now for a new line of work.”
“Ever since the first vision of a robot appeared on the horizon of mankind, humans have feared that automation will replace the workforce in our dystopian future.There typically follows a period of reassurance, in which we are compelled to believe that this will be a good thing, and that robots could actually liberate us from the drudgery of daily toil and free us for more enjoyable, cerebral pursuits. Futurist Jerry Kaplan, 63, is among those optimists. He estimates that 90% of Americans will lose their jobs to robots and we should all be happy about it.“If we can program machines to read x-rays and write news stories, all the better. I say good riddance,” Kaplan said. “Get another job!”
“What is the future of work, and the future of jobs? For the last several decades, the workers of Germany, the US and Europe have been the most productive and wealthiest in the world. But now that prosperity is in danger.
Where is this danger coming from? Is it from hordes of immigrants arriving from distant lands? Or foreign competitors stealing jobs? No, ironically the threat is self-inflicted.The situation is most advanced in the United States, but it’s heading to Germany and Europe.
The US workforce is undergoing an alarming transformation. Millions of workers are finding themselves on shaky ground, turned into freelancers, contractors and temps, with inadequate wages and a weaker safety net. Even many full-time and professional jobs are experiencing this shift. America is heading toward a “freelance society.”’
“According to Gallup, 5 billion people are of working age. 3 billion earn money in some way, most of them want a job with steady pay.But only 1.3 billion have one — and out of them, only 200M, or 13%, are engaged in their job.What’s more, for every engaged worker, there are two who hate their job. This is the sad state of the global workforce that creates $75 trillion dollars of market value each year. Human capacity is the world’s most underutilized resource.Now, imagine a much better world — the people-centered economy — where three billion workers have jobs tailored to fit their unique sets of skills, talents, passions, where they work with people they are inspired by and productive together with, where they engage in the most meaningful and fruitful opportunities that can be found for them.We might as well round that up to five billion people, because anyone of working age would want that job.”
“Significant technological advances have reshaped society as we know it.But the World Economic Forum (WEF) warned that while this is pushing us into “the fourth industrial revolution” and is transforming the labour markets beyond all recognition from decades ago, it will lead to a net loss of over 5 million jobs in 15 major developed and emerging economies by 2020.These countries include Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US.WEF said in its report, entitled “The Future of Jobs,” which was published on Monday, that while skills and jobs displacement will affect every industry and geographical region, these job losses can be offset by employment growth in other areas.WEF estimated that 7.1 million jobs could be lost through redundancy, automation, or disintermediation, while the creation of 2.1 million new jobs, mainly in more specialised areas such as computing, math, architecture, and engineering, could partially offset some of the losses.”Without urgent and targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base,” said Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, in the report.”
“Quase um em cada cinco novos desempregados do mundo em 2016 e 2017 virá do Brasil. A estimativa é da Organização Mundial do Trabalho (OIT), que em seu mais recente relatório sobre empregabilidade, divulgado neste terça-feira, acredita que 700 mil brasileiros se somarão ao contingente de desempregados até o ano que vem, de um total que pode chegar a 3,4 milhões de pessoas ao redor do planeta.O país é citado diversas vezes no documento como exemplo de mercado de trabalho em apuros. Segundo a OIT, economias emergentes como a brasileira serão as que mais sofrerão com o desemprego em 2016.Em meio à crise econômica e à recessão, a sangria no mercado de trabalho do Brasil já foi sentida em 2015: nos 12 meses até novembro, foram perdidas cerca de 1,5 milhão de vagas formais no país.”
The corporate innovation struggle is real, they all want it. So to make their innovation dreams real, companies are now making innovation everyone’s job by making it a prerequisite for job searchers, and also putting “innovation” related words and activities in existing employees job descriptions.Good try, but it’s not enough.The litmus test for all of these “innovation enhancing activities” is after you’ve let them know that their job now includes innovation, train them do so, will you let the misfits run the asylum?Yes, I had to go there.You see, you can’t tell people to be innovative when you won’t let them be; you can’t mandate innovation.Work in the Future Will Fall into These 4 Categories
“Organizations are more boundary-less, agile, global, and transparent — and will be even more so in the future. Work and workers (yes, humans) will always be essential to organizations, but organizations themselves will be more diverse, and work will be organized, structured, and done in new ways, increasingly through arrangements outside of regular full-time employment. How can leaders navigate this new digital work ecosystem? How should your organization plan for the changes ahead?”